Optimism is a dangerous strategy for a household. Most people believe they will earn more money . This belief is a mistake.
The belief is a mistake because the belief is not a fact. A fact is a salary certificate. A fact is a bank statement. A fact is the amount of money in a bank account today. People take apartments based on a guess. The guess is that the income will grow. The income often stays the same. The income stays flat.
When rent consumes 50% of the current income, the household is betting on a future raise that has not yet arrived.
The Reasoning on the Balcony
The reasoning happens on a balcony. The balcony is small. The man stands on the balcony. The woman stands on the balcony. They look at the view. The view shows the city. The city has many buildings.
The apartment costs nine thousand dirhams every month. The man earns eighteen thousand dirhams every month. The rent is fifty percent of the income. This number is high.
“The rent is a stretch. But the stretch is temporary. A raise is coming in the middle of the year.”
– The Man on the Balcony
The woman asks if the boss promised the raise. The man says the boss hinted at the raise. The man says the performance is strong. The man says the market is good. The man makes a bet. The bet is on the future.
The apartment is taken. The lease is signed. The documents are submitted. The check is passed. No one writes down the assumption about the raise. The word ‘assumption’ is not used.
The man and the woman move their boxes. They buy a new sofa. The sofa is expensive. They buy the sofa because they believe the raise is coming. They live in the apartment. They wait for the .
The Neon Sign Technician
Zara T.J. works in a shop. The shop is in a basement. Zara T.J. is a neon sign technician. Zara T.J. works with glass tubes. She uses a ribbon burner. The flame is blue. The flame is hot.
Zara T.J. heats the glass. The glass becomes soft. She bends the glass into the shape of a letter. She must be careful. If the glass is too hot, the glass melts. If the glass is too cold, the glass snaps. Zara T.J. understands limits. She understands the physical properties of the material. She does not guess about the glass. She knows the glass.
Zara T.J. sits at a metal desk. She tries to log into her bank account. She types a password. The screen says the password is wrong. She types it again. The screen locks after five attempts. Zara T.J. cannot see her money. She knows the money is there, but she also knows it is not enough.
Her rent increased . She thought her boss would pay her more. She makes signs for people who sell houses. The signs are bright. The signs are red. The signs are blue. The signs do not pay her rent. Her salary is the same as the salary was . The salary is flat.
The Corporate Review
A corporate review is a formal process. The process happens in an office. The office has a gray carpet. The man sits in a chair. The boss sits in a chair. The boss has a folder. The folder contains the numbers.
The boss says the man is a good worker. The boss talks about the economy. The boss offers a raise. The raise is three percent. Three percent of eighteen thousand is five hundred and forty dirhams.
The man needed three thousand dirhams. The man did not get three thousand dirhams. The man got five hundred and forty dirhams. The man still lives in the apartment. The rent is still nine thousand dirhams. The assumption has failed.
The Strength of the Engine
There is a way to look at money without the optimism. The way involves a process. A software engine can look at a bank statement. The engine does not have a balcony. The engine does not have hope.
The engine looks at the history of the account. The engine sees the salary arrive on the same day every month. The engine sees the rent leave the account. It sees the cost of electricity, water, and food. The engine calculates the truth. The truth is that the person can afford the rent today, or they cannot.
The software uses a salary certificate. A salary certificate is a piece of paper. The paper has a stamp. The paper has a signature. The paper is a literal statement of current value. The software reads the paper. It does not factor in the hint from the boss. This is a strength. The software only believes in now.
Practical Resilience
Many people struggle with the upfront cost of a lease. The annual cheque is a large sum. The sum is hard to find in a single month. This is why people look for
monthly rent installments from SplitRent
to manage the cost.
Using a service like this allows the tenant to pay the rent over time. The tenant pays the rent from the monthly salary. The monthly salary is a known quantity. The monthly salary is the actual resource.
Zara T.J. finishes the sign. The sign says ‘VACANCY’. The sign is for a building down the street. The building is new. The building has many balconies. Zara T.J. wonders how many people on those balconies are talking about raises. She wonders how many people are making bets.
She packs the sign into a crate. She uses bubble wrap. The bubble wrap protects the glass. The glass is fragile. A budget is also fragile. A budget based on a future raise is like a glass tube without the bubble wrap. It is likely to break.
The Unspoken Premise
The unspoken premise is the most dangerous part of a decision. When a premise is spoken, the premise can be tested. If the man had said to the woman that they were betting on a twenty percent raise, the woman might have laughed.
The woman might have said the bet was too big. Because the man did not say the number, the woman did not laugh. They both accepted the silence. The silence felt like safety. The silence was actually a void.
Planning for a flat year is a sober act. A flat year means the income does not move. A flat year means the expenses must fit within the current walls of the bank account.
If the income grows, the growth is a gift. If the income does not grow, the household is safe. Safety is paramount.
The man goes home. He walks into the two-bedroom apartment. He looks at the sofa. He looks at the walls. He thinks about the five hundred and forty dirhams. He thinks about the rent. He realizes he made a mistake.
He realized the mistake too late. The lease is for . The year will be long. He will work more hours. He will eat less expensive food. He will not stand on the balcony as much. The balcony reminds him of the four seconds when he decided to be wrong.
The Light that Matters
The neon sign is installed. The sign glows. The light is steady. The light does not change. The light is constant because the pressure of the gas is constant. A household needs the same constancy. A household needs to know the pressure.
When the pressure is based on a guess, the light flickers. When the light flickers, the sign is broken. Zara T.J. knows this. She fixes the signs that flicker. She cannot fix the budgets that flicker.
Only the man on the balcony can fix the budget. The man must stop looking at the view and start looking at the salary certificate. The salary certificate is the only light that matters.
The annual cheque demands a future that the monthly salary cannot find.